2008年7月14日 星期一

Nokia Morph

新概念手機。。。。屌。。。

2008年6月5日 星期四

一噸二氧化碳賣多少?

想減緩全球暖化又不影響經濟發展,有賴更明確而良好的市場訊息來控制碳排放量。

撰文/維克特(David G. Victor)、柯倫華德(Danny Cullenward) 翻譯/甘錫安

重點提要

■我們必須降低全球二氧化碳排放量,避免嚴重的氣候變遷。
■對碳排放課稅雖然有效,但是政治因素阻礙了美國實施課稅制度。比較可行的方法是聯邦總量管制市場,讓污染者在市場上取得排放許可,自行決定如何達成減量目標。
■總量管制市場必須在嚴密的管理下才能成功,而且必須有足以影響排放量的配套政策才能達成目標。仔細分析現有的歐盟碳交易市場,可得到很有價值的參考。

未來一世紀,人類很可能會使地球氣候暖化到值得擔憂的地步。儘管大氣中的二氧化碳大多來自燃燒化石燃料,但除了開發更潔淨的能源和期待它們早日普及之外,我們還需要更有效的解決方案。另外,建立專責機構和策略也同樣重要(尤其是市場、商業法規和政府政策),提供誘因給企業界,促使他們採用創新的科技和方法,降低二氧化碳與其他影響氣候的溫室氣體排放量。

這項挑戰十分艱鉅,傳統的化石燃料能源已經十分普及而且廉價,環保的替代方案如果沒有強力政策支持,被接受的可能性很低。可惜的是,限制全球排放量的管制條約在近20年的協商後,進展依然十分有限,不過,在最關注氣候變遷的歐洲,政策制定者並沒有因此而受到阻礙,反而採取行動教導大眾如何最能遏止地球繼續吞下大量的碳。

美國的二氧化碳排放量一向高於其他國家,其實美國的政策制定者可藉由分析歐洲近年來的成果有哪些成功與不足之處,進一步學習如何建立可行的碳減量市場。我們將在本文中探討美國應該如何建立全國性的碳管理制度,包括建立市場的策略以及其他獎勵措施,以鼓勵開發與採用低碳能源的創新發明。 直到最近,對於建立專責機構保護地球氣候的討論,大多著眼於全球層級,一般認為氣候政策要能成功,必須簽署有約束力的國際條約,因為造成氣候變遷的活動遍佈全世界,如果各國政府各自為政,欠缺全球性的協調,產業界只會遷移到法規比較寬鬆的地區。

這個全球化主義者理論,構成了1992年聯合國氣候變遷綱要公約的協商基礎,該公約要求所有國家合作解決氣候問題,並成立機構、監督公約執行狀況。這個公約帶動了建立氣候變遷協定的進程,促成1997年的京都議定書。在京都議定書中,各工業化國家(包括美國、歐盟、日本和俄羅斯)原則上同意履行各自不同的減量義務,降低平均工業排放量,目標是比1990年的排放水準低5%。但開發中國家十分重視自由使用能源所帶來的經濟成長,因此拒絕接受排放量的總量管制。

潔淨發展機制難以實行

由於缺乏強迫開發中國家控制排放量的可行方式,因此京都議定書簽署國達成了所謂「潔淨發展機制」(clean development machanism)的共識,在這個提案之下,國際投資人可針對溫室氣體排放量未受強制規範的開發中國家,挹注資金到能夠降低排放量的計畫,賺取碳排放額度。因此,英國企業如果在國內的排放量受到嚴格限制(成本也因而提高),可在中國投資建造風力發電機,風力發電的零排放量,與原先燃煤發電(中國最普遍的能源)生產等量電力的基線排放量(即沒有減量計畫下的排放量),兩者之間的差距就是英國企業可取得的額度。如此一來,中國可獲得外國投資及能源基礎建設,英國企業則可用更低的成本符合環保規範。對工業化國家的公司而言,從海外賺取的額度,通常會比為現有的工廠與基礎設備添加新科技降低排放量,來得更省錢。

潔淨發展機制的額度形成的市場規模,由此開始呈爆炸性成長,交易量約佔全世界溫室氣體排放量的0.33%,年度總市值大約為44億美元。

儘管京都議定書很快就達成了紙上協議,但受限最大的工業化國家執行管制的狀況則落差相當大,主要的國家(尤其是美國,也包括澳洲和加拿大)並沒有遵守京都議定書,因為他們認為這些規定的成本不僅太高,在政治上也難以實行。因此,這個公約對全球暖化問題的整體影響力一直沒有充份發揮,即使所有國家都遵守公約規定,影響力也很小。概略性的國際公約經常遇到這類問題,因為達成協議後,利益屬於最不熱心的參與者,而且公約經常為不願信守協議的國家保留可輕易逃避義務的條款。

總量管制政策,讓市場決定價格

如何設定有意義的全球目標,是個大挑戰,因此京都議定書在簽訂了近10年之後,可減緩氣候變遷的國際制度才剛開始發展,目前有一群對控制排放量出力最多的國家,正嘗試提出政策,這些國家不採行京都議定書的全球整合方案,而是各自擬定不同策略來控制溫室氣體排放,這些各式各樣的計畫,反映出各國對於什麼才是管理排放量的最佳方式十分不確定,而且各國政府在能力和做法上差別極大。

由於美國退出京都議定書,歐盟成為遵守這項全面管制計畫中最大的政治實體,因此歐盟對限制溫室氣體排放的努力非常重要。歐洲交易系統擁有最強大的專責機構,交易的額度量也最大,為了減少總排放量的55%(主要來自建築物及運輸工具),歐盟及成員國已經擴大現有的政策來提高能源效率,例如與汽車製造廠協商訂定自願性(很快就會成為強制性)汽車能源效率目標。 歐盟其餘的溫室氣體來源(定義為「工業排放」製造者,包含火力發電廠),總數較少、個別規模較大,因此較容易控制。

針對這些公司,歐洲管理人員設計了稱為「排放量交易方案」的全歐市場架構,這個方案是所謂的「總量管理」制度,靈感來自美國於1990年代成立並成功減少二氧化硫(酸雨的主要成份)的計畫。

在歐盟協定中,各國政府依據該國被指定的基礎排放量計算,把排放額度免費分配給各個工廠(每單位額度代表許可排放一公噸二氧化碳氣體),接著由公司自行決定哪種減量方式的成本較低:降低排放量以便出售多餘額度,或是在公開市場上向其他公司購買額度?另外,公司和政府也可向潔淨發展機制購買額度,或購買俄羅斯和其他東歐前共產國家以類似方案產生的額度。

如果減量的成本昂貴,則排放許可額度的需求就會增加,價格也會跟著提高;相反的,如果出現成本低廉的二氧化碳減量技術,或是經濟成長減緩使排放溫室氣體的產業衰退,價格就會降低。藉由管制排放許可的總量,歐盟管理人員可以遏止污染程度提高,同時讓市場決定價格。歐洲市場的試辦期,由2005年到2007年底為止。

建立碳交易市場就如其他有利可圖的新興財產權市場一樣,關鍵在於政治抉擇。政治家和利害關係產業通常傾向建立交易市場,而反對課稅,因為政治制度往往會免費給予大部份排放額度,相反的,稅收則會增加許多可見的成本。

以往有一些交易制度已經開始拍賣排放許可,但所謂的「大碳戶」(包括煤礦公司和燃煤火力發電廠擁有者),正在串連抗拒這類計畫。在歐盟,各國政府已同意將大部份額度免費給予現有的排放者;美國研議中的氣候變遷法規應該也會有類似的發放措施。在政府發放財產權給私人機構(例如行動電話執照)的其他狀況中,管理人員從未遭遇對交易如此強烈的政治反對,因為產業界尚未開發這項公眾資產;相反的,化石燃料產業一向可自由將溫室氣體排放到大氣中。污染市場已被法律許可,它們被設計為過去不曾存在的有價財產,新興碳市場的參與者是賺、是賠,取決於額度分配規則的構想。

如果要對已經享有的資產分配財產權,常見的方式是透過政治發放,而不是拍賣。 這類發放措施有些是政治上的權宜之計,因為這些措施有助於市場起步,否則根基深厚的利益團體(例如煤礦遊說團)會阻礙進展。但如果這些額度全都分配出去,大碳戶和舊技術擁有的深厚根基將成為更大的危險。 在這些前提之下,無怪乎歐盟碳交易市場在短短的時間內,就遇到好幾個問題,多數情況是,各國政府設想的排放許可分配量已經達到過去的底線,卻仍未涵括所有的排放者。但最引起爭議的則是政治經常獨厚特定企業或產業,或是為了推動市場,由潔淨發展機制取得廉價卻有問題的排放額度。舉例來說,極力保護國內煤礦業的德國政府,就分配了太多免費額度給燃煤火力發電廠,這類發電廠業者還向消費者收取業者根本不需支付的碳「成本」。其他國家也有類似的不當獲利行為,包括荷蘭、西班牙和英國等。

原則上,歐盟會審核各國政府的額度分配,防止受惠的公司取得不正當的利益,不過實際上,成員國也有許多政治手段,而且在他們認為必要時絕不手軟。目前歐盟制度預計每五年重新分配許可量,但每次都實施新的發放方式,將導致移除高排碳工業技術更加困難,而這些高碳工業都是排放量的大宗。 實行成功的美國酸雨防治計畫,雖然也是免費分配絕大部份額度,但核心規則維持了近20年沒有更改,這讓市場更容易正常運作。

歐盟在確保排放者、經紀人和交易者是否及時取得最精確的碳額度供需訊息方面,也遭遇到了問題。在排放量交易方案的試辦期,市場相當混亂,使價格從最初的每公噸二氧化碳近40美元,一路滑落到目前的每公噸約1美元。價格下跌是因為歐盟各國政府顯然過度供給許可量給市場,就如管理失當的中央銀行印製過多貨幣,造成通貨膨脹一樣。為解決這個問題,歐盟緊縮了下一個交易期間(2008~2012年)的額度,使每公噸提高到30美元左右。…

2008年6月3日 星期二

Microsoft Surface

未來的新科技真的很屌!!





2008年5月10日 星期六

好聽的客家歌-客家世界



歌詞:

客家電視台歌-客家世界 詞/曲:黃連煜 編曲:余大豪

就像大雨後个天弓 紅鑼花色高掛在空中
希望摁个世界 多姿多彩 多情多義多笑容
紅男綠女歡歡喜喜 牽手鬧洋洋
這係客家世界 祥人个地方 等汝來聊做英雄

阿公啊 挨弦仔 阿婆就來 唱山歌
句句唱出 客家个智慧

摁係 現代个客家人 世界个客家人
摁有 豐富又精采个 客家文化呦
摁係 快樂个客家人 實在个客家人
摁要 剎忙打拼 共心開創 客家世界 呦呦得呦

鮮鮮个河水 流向那大海
日久他鄉變故鄉 管汝哪位來

資料來源:
客家電視台

2008年5月9日 星期五

好聽的客家歌 - 旅客

旅客

好聽的客家歌 - 燕子

燕子

好聽的客家歌 - 月光光

月光光





詞、曲、演奏、演唱:邱幸儀

日頭烈拿毋定愛行哪一條路
安靜個夜又想起阿公個慈容
添望忒麼介時節捱緊行緊遠 找毋轉自家
忒阿婆屋卡有千百條故事個龍眼樹下共下吊槓干
田坵底背鏡鮮個圳子 捱等共下覓蛤子
為了麼介愛離開頭擺單純個世界
想念童年
月光光 秀才郎
這介故事捱已經從細聽到大
對頭擺耶流傳下來
月光光 秀才郎
今晡日捱等變哪冇一樣
忒月光底下講古個老人家奈起耶

2008年4月29日 星期二

2008年3月24日 星期一

銀行的改變嗎?

本文:

Change is one thing you can bank on.


Leon Gettler

March 19, 2008

THE way people bank may look different 50 years from now. True, our basic needs of depositing and saving won't change. But there are forces likely to change the face of banking.

For example, there is the prospect of more retailers setting up banks. Britain's Tesco has a banking business. Last year, in the US, Wal-Mart withdrew an application to open a specialty bank following claims the world's biggest retailer would overwhelm small-town competitors.

This year, in Mexico, it opened Banco Wal-Mart, offering no-frills savings accounts and loans to buy products in the company's stores.

Then there is the growth of banking via mobile phones, something that has been described as a bank in every pocket. Customers can deposit and withdraw cash through a mobile phone operator's agents, and send money to other people via text messages that can be exchanged for cash later at an agent.

In Japan, shoppers have bought $US83 billion ($A89.6 billion) worth of goods online through their mobile phones. And mobile phone companies there are already moving into the banking space. NTT DoCoMo, for example, offers credit because it knows its customers' names, addresses and bank account details.

There is also peer-to-peer lending. Kiva, a web-based nonprofit that helps individuals make loans to small businesses in developing countries, might be the shape of things to come.

This is another reason why these are challenging times for the world's second-oldest profession. And how it manages the change, and connects with its customers, will be fascinating to watch.

Forced by rising costs to increase interest rates beyond the Reserve Bank's official cash rate rise, Australia's money lenders aren't winning many friends. True, they have been more transparent than usual in explaining the costs that have driven up rates by more than the RBA's increases, but the Australian Consumers Association's Christopher Zinn says they have got some explaining to do.

"What exactly are the added costs, by what percentage and over what months?" Mr Zinn says. "They say they are carrying some of the load for customers and expect them to be grateful. But is that 1% of the load, or 50%? It's very hard to know how grateful we should be for their benevolence."

Still, that hasn't stopped the banks rolling out campaigns and efforts to connect with the community. ANZ, recognising debt as a big issue, has introduced a credit card that rewards customers with points for every dollar they repay off their balance.

Commonwealth Bank has its controversial $50 million advertising campaign, "Determined To Be Different".

But National Australia Bank seems to have cottoned on to the problem: Australians don't like banks. It has launched the StarBank brand to capture online customers. StarBank's relationship with NAB will be like Jetstar's links with Qantas - just don't talk about the parent company.

These campaigns seek to create an emotional connection with customers. But they are unlikely to solve the problem.

Melbourne Business School research in 2006 found that Australian banks were poor performers on the customer satisfaction scale developed by Bain consultant Fred Reichheld.

Under the so-called net promoter score, customers are asked a simple question: how likely are you to recommend us to a friend or colleague?

The answer is then plotted from 0 (not at all likely) to 10 (extremely likely). The customers are divided into three distinct groups.

Those who rank a company nine to 10 are classified as "promoters". Those who rank it seven to eight are "passives" - satisfied but unenthusiastic consumers who can be snaffled by the competition. Those who rank the company from one to six are "detractors", trapped in a bad relationship with the company.

Subtract the passives and detractors from the promoters and you get the net promoter score.

Associate Professor Mark Ritson found that Australian banks all pulled up negative scores: CBA, -54; NAB, -42; Westpac, -39; BankWest, -33; St George, -30; ANZ, -24 and HSBC, -8.

In other words, the banks, unlike most businesses, had a majority of customers that disliked them. For example, almost two-thirds of Commonwealth Bank's customers were detractors. While the bank might comfort itself that it has the biggest mortgage market in Australia, most of its customers would not recommend it.

One good reason for this might be that banks are among the most notorious for what Reichheld called "bad profits", the earnings that come from fees when you exceed a credit limit, overdraw the account, pay a credit card one day late, stop a cheque or fail to have enough funds in your account. Bad profits are a huge money-spinner for banks. According to Choice magazine and the Consumer Action Law Centre, banks and credit unions charged households more than $4 billion in fees in 2006. Gouging customers is good business. The only bank that pulled up a remotely positive score in Ritson's study was Bendigo, the self-styled community bank, that scored 7, which was very low compared with BMW's 59 and Singapore Airlines' 39.

To their credit, Australian banks are aware of these issues and are trying to fix them. But they have some way to go and bank insiders say the biggest problem is the culture.

Tim Riches, the managing director of Futurebrand, the outfit behind the rebranding of ANZ under John McFarlane, says retailers have a good platform to open banks because of their ability to package the offering.

Retailers are also better equipped than banks to tap into customers through electronic identification systems and fly-buys. This puts them in a good position to offer services such as basic insurance, credit cards, term deposits and transaction accounts.

And the banks, says Riches, are at a disadvantage because they no longer have an emotional attachment with customers and because Australian banks do not have a history of innovation, apart from perhaps internet banking.

"There would be lots of Australians out there who would be happy to take their business elsewhere if it was easy for them," Riches says.

The likelihood of any threat is diminished by the fact that Australian retailers, when compared with their overseas counterparts, are so appalling.

Players are also unlikely to move into the banking space in this market. That, and inertia.

The banks are only too aware of this. Banking strategists say retailers and mobile phone companies would not be equipped to manage banking's complexities, not to mention wealth management.

They are probably right. But banks will need to rethink their relationships with customers, and become more user-friendly to deal with the changes. Whether they can do it given their culture remains to be seen.

文章來源:theage

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先看看,我也還沒看完,有什麼想法或者概念在提出來囉!


2008年3月21日 星期五

就當作是第一篇吧!!

開始分享所學的嗎??
哈!